Will XRP Price Plunge 25% to $1.55?

XRP has been under pressure again, and a new set of analyses is warning that the price could drop about 25% from current levels to around $1.55. The main reason: a noticeable slump in XRP Ledger (XRPL) activity over the past few months, combined with bearish chart patterns and profit-taking from earlier buyers.

If you hold XRP or are thinking of buying it, it is important to understand what is behind this $1.55 target, what the on-chain data shows, and what could invalidate this bearish scenario.

1. Where does the “25% drop to $1.55” call come from?

Recent coverage (originally highlighted via Cointelegraph and syndicated in other outlets) argues that a move to around $1.55 is possible because:

XRP is currently trading in roughly the low–$2 range, depending on the exchange.
A 25% decline from about $2.06–$2.10 lines up with a technical target near $1.55.
On-chain and market structure indicators (ledger activity, chart patterns, and weakening demand) are pointing toward downside risk rather than upside momentum.

In other words, this is not a random number, it is roughly where some technicians expect the next major support area if current levels fail.

2. XRPL activity has clearly slowed

Several recent reports show that XRP Ledger activity has dropped compared with earlier in the year:

Some data sets highlight a sharp fall in daily transactions and new account activations over recent months, raising questions about near-term usage and demand.
Other on-chain analyses speak of “on-chain activity down 80% in 5 months” in certain metrics such as new wallet creation, which signals weaker short-term growth in user engagement.

Why does this matter?

For a token like XRP, which is marketed heavily as a payments and settlement asset, declining ledger activity can be read as:

Less network usage in payments or remittance flows
Lower speculative engagement from traders
Potentially reduced real demand supporting the price

That does not mean the network is “dead”, but it does mean the fundamental usage trend is not strongly supporting the price right now.

3. The technical picture: patterns and support levels

Beyond on-chain data, chart analysts are also cautious:

A previous Cointelegraph analysis described XRP forming a bearish descending triangle on the daily chart, which carried a downside target around $1.20 if support broke.
Other technical pieces point to repeated failures at resistance and “death cross” type setups, where short-term moving averages cross below longer-term ones – often a sign of losing momentum.

Right now, the market is watching intermediate support zones between roughly $2.20 and $1.90. If those levels fail decisively with strong volume, the next “logical” chart target some analysts see is around $1.55, which would match a 25% pullback from recent prices.

4. On-chain losses, profit-taking and fragile structure

The concerns do not end at price and volume. Several on-chain and market-structure datasets paint a fragile picture:

One recent analysis notes that over 40% of the XRP supply is currently sitting at a loss, meaning a large share of holders bought higher than current prices. That can increase the risk of panic selling if the price drops further.
Another report shows that long-term holders have been realizing profits aggressively after buying much lower earlier in the cycle, adding continuous sell pressure into rallies.
Open interest in XRP futures has also rolled over at times, showing weaker speculative demand and less conviction from leveraged traders.

Put simply:

A large chunk of supply is at a loss,
Long-term holders are selling into strength, and
New speculative demand is softer than before.

That combination often makes the price “structurally fragile”, where relatively small negative shocks can cause sharp downward moves.

5. Macro and altcoin context: it is not just XRP

XRP is also part of a broader market structure:

When Bitcoin dominance is high and liquidity is tight, altcoins like XRP often suffer more on the downside as capital rotates to “safer” large caps or stablecoins.
Macro uncertainty (interest rates, regulation news, ETF flows, and large exchange or corporate events) tends to make traders more conservative, which hurts higher-beta assets like XRP first.

So even if XRP had okay fundamentals, a risk-off environment across crypto can still drag it lower.

6. Could the $1.55 target be wrong? What would invalidate it?

No price target is guaranteed. A 25% drop to $1.55 is a risk scenario, not a certainty. Things that could weaken or invalidate that bearish view include:

Rebound in XRPL activity: Sustained growth in transactions, payments volume and new wallet creation would signal that network usage is improving again, which can support price.
Strong support holding above $1.80–$1.90: If XRP repeatedly defends higher support levels and starts printing higher lows, the market may reject the lower targets.
Positive news shocks: New major partnerships, regulatory clarity, or meaningful adoption updates can change sentiment quickly. Some recent corporate moves by Ripple, such as acquisitions and funding rounds, are viewed as long-term positives even if price has not yet reflected them.

7. What this means if you are an investor

If you are considering XRP or already hold it:

Do not trade only on one headline. Treat the $1.55 level as a risk zone to be aware of, not a promise.
Watch on-chain and network metrics, not just price: transactions, new addresses, and payment volume on XRPL tell you whether usage is improving or weakening.
Track key support levels on the chart. A clean break of major support with strong volume is more meaningful than small intraday moves.
Manage risk size. Because XRP is volatile and currently in a fragile structure, risking only a small portion of your total portfolio is safer than going all-in on any single view.

This is not about predicting the exact bottom; it is about understanding why analysts see downside risk and being prepared for both outcomes: a deeper drop or a surprise recovery.

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