Bitcoin set for first red October in seven years: What will November bring?

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October is usually one of Bitcoin’s best months, analysts even call it “Uptober.” Historically, Bitcoin has closed October in the green in most years since 2013, with CoinDesk noting average double-digit returns for the month. This year (October 2025) broke that pattern:

BTC fell from the early-month high near $126,000 to the $108,000–$111,000 area, making it the worst October since at least 2015.

So what flipped the script? A mix of macro disappointment (the Fed cut, but then sounded cautious), a sharp liquidation event triggered by US–China trade headlines, and ETF outflows from U.S. products all hit in the same month. SoFi As we move into November with U.S. election risk, still-uncertain Fed guidance, and a softer altcoin market it’s worth mapping the main forces that can push BTC either way.

Why October Turned Red

1. Fed cut, but no “easy money” promise

On Oct. 28 the Federal Reserve cut rates again, but Chair Jerome Powell immediately told markets that future cuts are “not locked in.” That killed the idea of a rapid easing cycle, which had been one of the pillars behind the “Uptober” narrative. Risk assets, including BTC and ETH, sold off right after the press conference.

2. Geopolitics and U.S–China trade noise

Mid-month, renewed trade tensions helped trigger a violent, derivatives-driven sell-off that knocked BTC from $126,000 below $105,000 in hours and wiped out billions in altcoins. This reinforced the idea that liquidity is thin and easily stressed.

3. ETF and fund outflows

U.S. crypto ETFs saw hundreds of millions of dollars in net outflows as rate-cut hopes faded, removing a key source of steady spot demand. Investopedia estimated about $550 million leaving U.S.-listed BTC products in the month. Less spot demand = softer floor.

4. Broken seasonality

CoinDesk started October noting that BTC had posted gains in 10 of the previous 13 Octobers, making 2025’s drop an outlier and the first clearly red October in years. That kind of broken pattern often makes traders more cautious heading into the next month.

Key Drivers to Watch in November

1. Federal Reserve guidance (again)

Markets now know the Fed can cut and still sound hawkish. If upcoming speeches or minutes hint that growth is weakening more than expected, BTC can benefit (easier policy, weaker dollar). If, instead, officials keep saying “one and done,” crypto may stay in range-trade mode. Keep an eye on bond yields and Fed funds futures.

2. U.S. election overhang

We are moving into an election window where fiscal, trade, and tech-regulation rhetoric typically rises. Markets dislike uncertainty, and October already showed how fast macro headlines can drain liquidity. A contested or unpredictable result in November would likely cap BTC rallies even if spot demand improves.

3. Liquidity and derivatives positioning

October’s washout was powered by liquidations. If funding rates stay flat/negative and open interest remains light, it means speculative longs have been cleaned out, which is actually constructive — Bitcoin can then grind higher on smaller inflows. If OI ramps up too quickly without fresh spot buying, another flush is possible.

4. ETF/fund flows reversing?

The easiest bullish signal to watch is whether the November data shows a turn from ETF outflows to net inflows. Even moderate, steady inflows would tell us that October’s move was mainly macro shock, not a structural rejection of BTC as an asset.

5. Altcoin spillover

October was not only about Bitcoin, CoinDesk’s CD20 fell, and altcoins underperformed as retail sat out. If altcoins keep bleeding in November, some capital usually rotates back to BTC as a “safety within crypto.” If altcoins bounce with better liquidity, BTC can benefit from broader risk appetite

Bull vs. Bear Setup for November

Bullish case:

Fed language turns slightly more dovish as economic data catches up.
ETF flows stabilize or go positive.
No new U.S.–China or election shock.
In this scenario, BTC can reclaim the $112K–$116K zone and revisit the early-October highs later in the month.

Bearish case:

Fed reiterates “no guaranteed December cut.”
Election rhetoric or trade headlines spark another risk-off move.
Liquidity remains thin, so any large sell order pushes BTC back to the $104K–$108K support cluster seen mid-October.
This lines up with the “October pattern is broken, stay defensive” view.

What investors should do now

Track spot leadership: A real November rebound must be spot-led (Coinbase, Binance, institutional OTC). Perps-only bounces are fragile.
Watch macro days: Fed speakers, jobs, and inflation will matter more than on-chain data in this regime.
Size for volatility: October proved the book is not deep; don’t size October-style leverage into November.
Stay informed: Reputable, timely sources — CoinDesk, Bloomberg Crypto, Reuters, and your exchange research desks should set the macro context